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M-1A-1 - Changes in Urban Form

Increasing urban density and mixed land use reduces travel distances and car dependency, lowering GHG emissions.

Urban form changes can also provide co-benefits such as improved public health through reduced air pollution and increased physical activity, economic benefits from reduced transport costs, and enhanced social equity through better access to services.

Since AR5, urban design has increasingly been seen as a major way to influence the GHG emissions from urban transport systems. Denser, more compact polycentric cities with mixed land use patterns can reduce the distance between where people live, work, and pursue leisure activities, which can reduce travel demand.

Changes in urban form is outlined in section 10.2.1 of (IPCC AR6 WG3 2022)1.

Mitigation Objective

The primary objective is for a utilisation shift to reduce light-duty vehicle distances travelled in a city by means of more dense urban design.

Mitigation Potential

The majority of studies cited by the IPCC combine urban changes with other mitigation options such as pricing. All studies agree that urban change does contribute to emission reduction but note that the mitigation potential is largely dependent on current urban density levels of each city.

Potential

We have chosen to estimate mitigation the potential conservatively at 7-10% of BAU emissions from light-duty vehicles in alignment with (Ewing et al. 2008)2.

... research suggests that implementing urban form changes could reduce GHG emissions from urban transport by 25% in 2050, compared with a business-as-usual scenario ...

- (IPCC AR6 WG3 2022)1

Case studies suggest that these changes in urban form could reduce transport-related GHG emissions between 4 to 25%, depending on the setting.

- (IPCC AR6 WG3 2022)1

Backed by increases in gasoline prices, urban form modifications could reduce global energy use in cities by 26% or 190 EJ, constituting a notable and possibly low-cost or negativecost urbanization wedge for climate change mitigation.

- (Creutzig et al. 2015)3

Making reasonable assumptions about growth rates, the market share of compact development, and the relationship between CO₂ reduction and VMT reduction, smart growth could, by itself, reduce total transportation-related CO₂ emissions from current trends by 7 to 10 percent as of 2050. This reduction is achievable with land-use changes alone. It does not include additional reductions from complementary measures, such as higher fuel prices and carbon taxes, peakperiod road tolls, pay-as-you drive insurance, paid parking, and other policies designed to make drivers pay more of the full social costs of auto use.

- (Ewing et al. 2008)2

Modelling

This mitigation method is not currently modelled with any Transition Elements.

Primary Reference

The primary reference for this mitigation measure is (IPCC AR6 WG3 2022)1.

Secondary References

Growing Cooler: The Evidence on Urban Development and Climate Change

This book (Ewing et al. 2008)2 explores how modifications in land development patterns can effectively reduce greenhouse gas emissions from vehicles. Through an extensive analysis of numerous studies by prominent urban planning experts, it establishes that urban development plays a crucial role in both causing and mitigating climate change. The authors advocate for compact development as a prime strategy to decrease vehicle travel, emphasising the creation of mixed-use, pedestrian-friendly areas where people can easily move around without needing to drive.

Evolving Narratives of Low-Carbon Futures in Transportation

This paper (Creutzig 2015)4 examines low-carbon transport scenarios, highlighting diverse potential outcomes influenced by policy, technology, and cultural factors. It identifies three main perspectives: integrated assessment models focusing on fuel composition, transport-sector models emphasising efficiency, and place-based models advocating for local behavioural and infrastructural changes. Place-based strategies, in particular, could reduce urban transport emissions by 20-50%, more than global models suggest. The paper discusses reconciling these approaches and the benefits of interdisciplinary collaboration for developing comprehensive low-carbon transport solutions.

  1. IPCC AR6 WG3. 2022. Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Edited by Priyadarshi R. Shukla, Jim Skea, Raphael Slade, Alaa Al Khourdajie, Renée van Diemen, David McCollum, Minal Pathak, et al. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157926. ↩↩↩↩

  2. Ewing, Reid, Keith Bartholomew, Steve Winkelman, Jerry Walters, and Don Chen. 2008. Growing Cooler: The Evidence on Urban Development and Climate Change. ↩↩↩

  3. Creutzig, Felix, Giovanni Baiocchi, Robert Bierkandt, Peter-Paul Pichler, and Karen Seto. 2015. “A Global Typology of Urban Energy Use and Potentials for an Urbanization Mitigation Wedge.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 112 (January). https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1315545112. ↩

  4. Creutzig, Felix. 2015. “Evolving Narratives of Low-Carbon Futures in Transportation.” Transport Reviews 36 (September):1–20. https://doi.org/10.1080/01441647.2015.1079277. ↩

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