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M-1A-4 - E-commerce

E-commerce is the activity of consumer purchasing of goods occurring online instead of consumers travelling by light-duty vehicles to shopping locations in order to make purchases. E-commerce effectively trades vehicle kilometers travelled by light-duty vehicles for light trucks ("last mile delivery").

E-commerce is outlined in section 10.2 (table 10.3) of (IPCC AR6 WG3 2022)1.

Mitigation Objective

The primary goal is for a shift from travel by light-duty vehicles (for the purposes of shopping) to freight shipping by light trucks.

Mitigation Potential

Potential

The AR6 report and the literature referenced by it do not present any reliable estimates for the mitigation potential of e-commerce.

The effect of e-commerce on transport emissions is uncertain. Increased e-commerce would reduce demand for trips to stores but could increase demand for freight transport (particularly last-mile delivery) (Jaller and Pahwa 2020; Le et al. 2021).

- (IPCC AR6 WG3 2022)1

Resulting estimates show that e-commerce has cut VMT by 7%, while consistent with previous literature, a potential reduction of 87% is possible if all individuals were to substitute towards online shopping. However, it is important to note that individuals using public transit, walking or biking to a store, can instead produce net gains in the externalities if they substitute towards online shopping. While this study assumes a 100% modal share of personal vehicles for shopping-related travel, the true modal shares are 79% in SF and 94% in Dallas, so a 7% reduction in VMT and a potential 87% reduction represent upper bound values for the same.

- (Jaller and Pahwa 2020)2

The empirical evidence remains scattered with sometimes contradictory findings. This complicates the forecasting of impacts of online shopping on passenger and freight traffic patterns, urban form, and air quality.

- (Le, Carrel, and Shah 2021)3

Modelling

This mitigation method is not currently modelled with any Transition Elements.

Primary Reference

The primary reference for this mitigation measure is (IPCC AR6 WG3 2022)1.

Secondary References

Evaluating the environmental impacts of online shopping

This paper (Jaller and Pahwa 2020)2 modeled shopping behaviour in Dallas and San Francisco in order to establish the mitigation potential of e-commerce. The paper estimates that vehicle kilometers travelled in the cities studied has already been reduced by 7% since the inception of e-commerce and estimates a somewhat high potential of 87% reduction in light-duty vehicle distances if all shopping is shifted to e-commerce.

Impacts of online shopping on travel demand

This paper (Le, Carrel, and Shah 2021)3 is a literature review of 42 studies conducted between 1990 and 2020. Studies are divided into four categories of conclusions: e-commerce as a substitute for shopping, as a complement (i.e. leads to increased shopping travel), as a modifier of shopping travel, or neutral effects on shopping travel. The paper concludes that a slight majority of studies show that e-commerce is a substitute for shopping but note that results are mixed.

  1. IPCC AR6 WG3. 2022. Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Edited by Priyadarshi R. Shukla, Jim Skea, Raphael Slade, Alaa Al Khourdajie, Renée van Diemen, David McCollum, Minal Pathak, et al. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157926. ↩↩↩

  2. Jaller, Miguel, and Anmol Pahwa. 2020. “Evaluating the Environmental Impacts of Online Shopping: A Behavioral and Transportation Approach.” Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment 80 (March):102223. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2020.102223. ↩↩

  3. Le, Huyen, Andre Carrel, and Harsh Shah. 2021. “Impacts of Online Shopping on Travel Demand: A Systematic Review.” Transport Reviews, August. https://doi.org/10.1080/01441647.2021.1961917. ↩↩

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